We’ve had a few posts in the recent past, addressing different aspects of the upcoming election in October. For anyone wanting to keep track of our perspective of all things “Harper Govt:”
Canadian Federal Election: It’s Time to Throw the People Who Betrayed Us Out of Office
Help Me Keep My April 5 Promise Revisited-We Will Never Forget the IGA Betrayal by the CONs
And now we have an excellent post explaining how “first past the post” works. Maybe I’ll link to a page in the next few days to keep all these together as references all in one place….
cross posted from adcsovereignty.wordpress.com
Message in a bottle 3: “First past the post” – How to win a majority government with a minority of the votes https://t.co/Ya8DkACy0s
— ADCSovereignty (@ADCSovereignty) July 9, 2015
Prologue – From “Message in a bottle 2: Democracy, the appointment of judges and the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms”
The post included:
I was reminded of a post that I wrote on this very topic during the 2011 Canadian Federal Election campaign (prior to FATCA and President Obama’s FBAR Fundraiser). You may recall that the Harper Government went into this election with a minority government. The reasons that he won a majority government exist today. The reality is that the Conservative Party of Canada – led by Stephen Harper has an excellent chance of retaining their majority government. That’s the price of the “first past the post” electoral system.
The “First past the post electoral system – How does it work and how does it encourage non-representative democracy?”
"First the post explained" – How to win a majority governement with a minority of the votes http://t.co/4H1XJe40IB – Think about it!
— Citizenship Lawyer (@ExpatriationLaw) July 8, 2015
The video in the above tweet explains how the “First past the post system” works.
The “Conservative Government” of Prime Minister is extremely unpopular. Yet, it has a “majority government”. How can this be? If you watch the video in the above tweet, you will see an explanation of how “First past the post” works.
Why “Message in a bottle 3”?
Prior to the 2011 election, the Conservative Government of Stephen Harper did NOT have a “majority government”. The Federal Election in 2011, resulted in the Conservative Government earning a “majority government”. Make no mistake about it. This was accomplished with a “minority of the vote”.
"First past the post": minority vote 2"majority government"http://t.co/VEQ2w4RZ8q "Most serious threat 2 Cdn democracy since Confederation"
— Citizenship Lawyer (@ExpatriationLaw) July 8, 2015
The video in the above tweet includes some of the thoughts of the Honourable Sinclair Stevens.
What follows, are excerpts from two posts that I wrote during the 2011 election:
Post 1 – April 23, 2011 – How, in a “first past the post system”, the NDP delivered Stephen Harper a conservative majority
If you want corporate tax cuts, vote for Jack and the NDP
The last few days have have full of discussion about the rise in Jack Layton’s popularity. Hard to understand – Jack Layton is a man who has made a career demonizing corporations and confusing a desirable state of affairs with a just state of affairs. In any case, if the polls are to be believed (and the they may become a self-fulfilling prophecy), Jack Layton’s popularity will bring the NDP to heights not seen since the days of Ed Broadbent. What does this mean for the outcome of the election on May 2?
My predication is that it means a Conservative Majority!
Look at it this way:
– Mr. Layton’s increased popularity in Quebec will amount to nothing in relation to the Conservatives (the NDP will just take seats from the Bloc). It could however mean something in terms of who will be the Opposition Leader. The conventional wisdom is that Mr. Ignatieff will continue to be the Opposition Leader. That is far from certain.
– in the rest of Canada Mr. Layton’s popularity will be primarily at the expense of the Liberals. The leaking of Liberal support to the NDP gives the Conservatives an excellent opportunity to win some of the closer ridings. Interestingly, the Conservatives could actually get fewer votes but win more seats.
– The relevancy of the Green Party will be a casualty of an increase of NDP popularity.
So, the moral of the story is:
If you want a Harper Majority then Vote NDP!
Here is an interesting article written in June 2010 from a respected commentator which suggest some of the same things:
Post 2 – April 7, 2011 – Strategic Voting in a “first past the post system” – Why the “Green Party” does NOT poll better
Strategic Voting – To Split the vote or not, that is the question
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Strategic Voting – To Avoid Splitting The Vote
The Green Party and Green Party supporters have the potential to make a big difference in the May 2 election. The Green Party is on a growth trajectory and may become a victim of its own success. Although the Greens are unlikely to win many seats (if any), they are likely to have an influence on the outcome of this election. Green Party supporters are most likely to take support from the Liberals and NDP – increasing the chance of a Conservative being elected – and potentially giving the Conservatives their coveted majority. The Conservatives, could get the same number percentage of votes as in 2008 and win a majority. To put it simply:
As goes the Green Party, So go the Conservatives!
It’s interesting that in the United States Ralph Nader ran for president as the Green Party Candidate (no affiliation with the Green Party of Canada). Some argued that the small number of votes he received (presumably at the expense of Al Gore), were responsible for giving George W. Bush the presidency.
What’s A Poor Green Party Supporter To Do?
As the above dilemma indicates, a number of Green Party supporters are aware that by voting for the Green Party, they may be electing the Conservatives. This demonstrates the problem of the “first past the post system” which will certainly be reevaluated. But, that is down the road. The question is what should voters do now? Vote for the Green Party with their heart, or vote for a Liberal with their head?
The following considerations may be important:
1. To Vote For A Liberal Is To Vote Against Something And Not For Something
For a Green Party supporter to vote for a Liberal, is to vote against a Conservative. I am reminded that when Rocco Rossi, exited the race for Toronto’s Mayor, he urged voters to “vote for something, not against someone”.
A Green supporter who votes for a Liberal is voting against something and not for something.
2. A Vote For A Liberal Is A Vote Against Local Representation
Although the Green Party appears to gives its candidates freedom and autonomy, the Liberals give their candidates neither freedom of judgment nor autonomy. When it comes to the Liberals: when the leader says jump – the candidate says “how high”? This also means a strategic vote against the Conservatives is also a vote again riding representation.
3. A Vote For A Liberal May Result In Mr. Ignatieff Becoming Prime Minister
There is a saying: “Better the devil you know, than the devil you don’t know”. Everybody except Conservatives believe that a Conservative majority would be the worst option. But, what is the difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives? Both parties have demonstrated contempt for democracy. There is no reason to believe that the Liberals would be better at managing the economy (and there is reason to believe that they would be worse). Neither the Liberals or Conservatives give the local MPs any autonomy – meaning that under neither scenario will the riding get local representation. At the present time only those ridings that elect independent candidates benefit from strong local representation.
4. Only A Majority Government Will Avoid A Coalition Government
It is unlikely that the Liberals could win a majority government. It is possible, (but I believe unlikely) that the Conservatives could win a majority. Remember that any government that is a minority government will be a coalition government – meaning that the parties must come together to vote on specific bills. The self-proclaimed “Harper Government” has been operating as a coalition government. It has always required the support of at least one other party.
5. A “Reckless” Coalition Is A Coalition Where Parties Agree To Vote Together From The Outset
Mr. Ignatieff has made it clear that he will not seek a “reckless” coalition with other parties. I don’t see that he has to. If the Harper government does not have a majority, the other parties (which command a majority) can come together to topple the government. For example, the Governor General could simply ask Mr. Ignatieff to form a government. He would then be in a minority government situation (which is exactly where the Conservatives are now). The precedent for this is the Ontario in the 1980s where David Peterson and Bob Rae came together to topple the Conservative government of Frank Miller. Mr. Peterson, became Premier and ran a minority government (relying on the support of the NDP).
6. A Vote For The Greens Is A Long Term Investment in Democracy
“There are risks and costs to a program of action. But they are far less than the long-range risks and costs of comfortable inaction.
– John F. Kennedy”
Much has been made of the “Harper Government” contempt for democracy. None of the mainstream parties respects the role of MPs or the principle that MPs should be responsible to their constituents. This is demonstrated by a centralization of power in the office of the Prime Minister and “whipped votes”. Contempt for democracy will continue as long as Canada clings to the “first past the post” voting system and any of the main parties form the government.
The only way that Canada’s government can change is through the vote. Assuming that the Greens exhibit a continuing respect for democracy, a vote for the Greens is a “long term” investment in the kind of representative democracy that Green party supporters want.
To put it simply: if you don’t vote for the Green Party candidates, they cannot win.
7. A Vote From The Heart Is A Vote That Stands For Something …
Barack Obama once noted that people were always accusing the Democrats of not standing for anything. In a rare display of wit, he countered by saying:
“That’s not true, the problem is that we do stand for anything.”
The Ontario Liberal Government of David Peterson was turfed out of office because it didn’t stand for anything (other than power for the sake of power). It is unclear what the Liberal Party of Michael Ignatieff actually stands for (other than wanting to be the government).
Therefore, a vote for the Liberals is NOT a “vote for something.”
Therefore, If you believe that the Green Party stands for something,
I suggest that a vote from your heart may be the same as a vote from your head!
All indications are that, following the recommendations of Betterballots.To and others, the City of Toronto will abolish the “first past the system”, in the 2018 election. As a result, it will be easier to defeat almost any City Councillor. The 2018 election will be a very exciting election. Incidentally, the City of Toronto is still debating the question of whether Canadian citizenship should be required for voting.
1 thought on “”
The Harperites are destroying key parts of Canada and are systematically undermining our Charter of Rights and Freedoms, on a whole range of issues well beyond FATCA and the IGA. They absolutely must be thrown out of office IMO.
Like it or not, the reality is that given our current first-past-the-post system (which is never going to be changed if Harper gets back in) and the brutal reality of the consequences in the last election of vote-splitting among the 61% of Canadians who voted and who clearly did NOT want the Cons, in 2011, the only responsible and rational choice in October is to vote ABC. Anyone But Conservative in your riding.
What that means in practice, IMO, is the following:
if you live in a riding currently held by any of the Opposition parties, vote for the incumbent if he or she is running, and vote for that party unless the replacement seems to be a hopeless loser;
if you live in a riding currently held by a Conservative MP, whether or not he or she is running for re-election, vote for whichever party came in second in that riding in 2011, unless that party’s candidate has been replaced by a hopeless loser or some other party has a much stronger candidate. Base this decision on your judgment of YOUR RIDING and NOT what you like or don’t like about the parties’ national leaders (other than Harper that is). None of them is going to be on your ballot, unless you live in one of four ridings in Canada in which a party leader is actually on the ballot.
And, much as I like and respect Elizabeth May and at least some of what her Green Party stands for, the brutal reality is that Elizabeth is the only Green candidate who has a hope in hell of getting elected in October, IMO. In pretty-much any riding, and certainly in my own riding of Ottawa Centre (held by Paul Dewar the NDP Foreign Affairs critic, who is running for re-election), a vote for the Green (or in my case even the Liberal) candidate only splits the anti-Con vote and is essentially a vote for Harper. Because, with a majority Con government going into the election, the ONLY way to defeat the Cons is for the opposition parties to take seats away from the Cons, NOT from each other.
What happens in later elections, especially if the Liberals and NDP actually do what they both (now) have promised and get rid of the first-past-the-post (also a Green platform policy), is another story. But for 2015, ABC is the only way to go IMO. Don’t split the anti-Harper vote; Harper and his cronies are counting on that, because according to the polls that’s the only way in hell they can get back in even as a minority government. Hold your nose and swallow your bile if the party in your riding most likely to defeat the Con candidate isn’t your first-choice party or its leader isn’t your first-choice leader. Vote ABC.